Evaluating emission reductions in the transport sector: Empirical contributions” Dissertation

This thesis empirically examines emission reductions and the e!ectiveness of mitigation policies with a specific focus on transportation, the only EU-27 sector in which emissions have increased since 1990. Particular attention is paid to Austria and Luxembourg, both of which have experienced especially large increases in transport emissions relative to 1990 levels. Mitigating emissions in this sector is complicated by stock persistence and deeply ingrained social habits. The thesis is organized into four chapters, each complementing the others both thematically and methodologically to provide robust mitigation policy assessments. Chapter 1 o!ers empirical guidance on identifying and estimating major emission drivers in large-N , large-T panels. It revisits studies in such settings and finds that not adequately accounting for this structure can result in incorrect inference and biased estimates. Chapter 2 moves to evaluate specific policy impacts, focusing on Austria’s policy mix since 1950. It pinpoints the most e!ective transport-related policies, while acknowledging their interdependencies and dynamic e!ects. It finds that taxes on new cars and fuels were particularly e!ective. Chapter 3 turns to policies aimed at incentivizing public transport and thus reducing car usage. It uses Luxembourg’s nationwide fare-free system as a quasi-experimental setting to measure its impact on transport emissions. It accounts for complexities such as large commuting inflows and COVID-19 related factors. An 8% reduction in road transport emissions is identified. Chapter 4 concludes and switches perspectives. Rather than asking which policies were most e!ective, it investigates the extent to which external factors – such as mild winters and overall economic activity levels – contributed to Austria’s recent emission reductions. The findings suggest these external factors played only a relatively minor role.

Recommended citation: Eibinger, T. (2025). "Evaluating emission reductions in the transport sector: Empirical contributions" Dissertation. https://eibinget.github.io/files/diss.pdf